THE 2002 GENERAL ELECTION IS A REPEAT OF 2005 REFERENDUM

John Cheruiyot
The recent opinions polls on the political landscape in the country are a replica of the 2005 referendum. The referendum gave ODM a landslide wins in six out of eight provinces. The same six provinces still favor ODM party and its presidential candidate Raila Odinga.
ODM is the most popular party in Kenya today. It has so far attracted 1400 parliamentary and 17,000 civic aspirants.ODM is popular from Mombasa to Malaba; it is popular from Lodwar to Lamu and Kisumu to Kilifi.
During the 2005 referendum current PNU point men from other regions outside Central lost heavily in their regions. They are Nyachae and Tuju PNU the point men in Nyanza,Kirwa,Ekwe Ethuro and Saitoti from Rift Valley,Makwere,Mungatana and Dzoro Morris all from Coast. Hence if the referendum paradigm prevails chances are Kibaki’s current cabinet ministers from non Gema communities will be beaten at the ballot box.
The issues that concern Kenyans throughout the nation are the irrelevant systems and institutions in place which many Kenyans have lost faith in. The centralized system which was outlawed in the Bomas Draft. The unitary thus is the real enemy of the people.
The PNU at first began demonizing Majimbo but as the ODM leaders and experts began to expound on the merits of devolution Kenyans are now yearning for Majimbo.Hence Majimbo is not any more a monster or a devil the PNU wanted Kenyans to hate and reject.Majimbo thus is getting support in all the provinces except Central Kibaki ’s political bed rock.
Evangelical church leaders led by Odoyo of Nairobi Pentecostal Church and Mark Kariuki of Deliverance Church recently urged politicians omit Majimbo as an election issue. What they forget is the fact that Kenyans were promised a new constitution in 100 days by Kibaki administration a promise never delivered. Secondly Kibaki administration instead replaced Bomas Draft a popular draft with Wako Draft. Hence Kibaki administration does not represent change but the perpetuation of the current oppressive status quo.What the PNU is trying to do is to sell the so called development record of Kibaki and by demonizing Majimbo thus resisting a popular devolution concept among the people.
The popularity of ODM springs from the fact that its leaders are seeking support from the excluded and the marginalized army of the peasantry and urban poor many of whom live below a dollar a day. This is the class that has been exploited and oppressed for decades.
Kibaki on the other hand has surrounded himself with the filthy rich-Koigi Wa Wamwere has been complaining of Kibaki as a president for the rich-the upper class and those who own big business. They include the families of the first and the second president, their cronies and cohorts. With Moi and Kenyatta families supporting Kibaki the game may look like a smart one. On the contrary the superrich are a minority. Their influence has since diminished.Moi for example is the ghost of his heydays. He is no longer a crowd puller he used to be.Moi used the carrot and the rod throughout his political career. He punished those who failed to toe his whims while he heaped favors and wealth on those who bent to his ways. People flooded Moi’s home and offices for handouts. His network of patronage sustained his presidency for 24 years. He amassed massive wealth and some for his diehard supporters.
Everyone who supported or followed Moi was only after the carrot. When Moi retired in 2002 he halted the flow of free handouts. Hence naturally his following diminished.
Hence the use of point men and the filthy rich regional point men is an irrelevant strategy in this year’s general election.Moi, Saitoti, Kirwa and Kilimo are impotent in Rift Valley. The same is true for Kombo, Moody, Kituyi and Wekesa among the Luhya community. Many of the PNU point men from Luhya land are unlikely to retain their seats. This thus is a precarious scenario in Kenya ’s history.
The issue of age is likely to feature. The PNU luminaries are aged .They are the old guards who engineered Kenya ’s poverty, tribalism and corruption. This is the order that Kenyans are fed up with.
Hence the use of power brokers, the rich and the aged to campaign for PNU is a dead strategy.
On the other hand the ODM has inspired and motivated the poor to rise up in large numbers to turn tables on the arrogant rich who continue to prosper at the expense of the people.
The interesting thing about PNU point men is they are blind to the realities at the ground. They are selling unpopular product at the expense of their careers. That is not a new thing. Most unpopular leaders are driven by their self interest as long as they get the carrot for themselves and their cronies they do not care whether they fail or not.
Many leaders have however read the mood of the people. One of them is John Koech a former MP for Chepalungu.He quit PNU and joined ODM.
This time round all the Gema heavy weights have joined Kibaki’s camp. All the key leaders and the rich Kikuyu leaders have all joined Kibaki at his hour of need. In the process Kibaki’s presidency is seen to be more of Gema throne hence every Gema must support and be loyal to their leader and president-Mwai Kibaki.
On the other hand Raila’s candidature has galvanized all the Kenyans outside the house of Mumbi.Raila’s promise to take corruption head on and deal decisively with looters and the corrupt has earned him respect and support throughout the nation.
The poor and the downtrodden have an avenue this time round to vote for change and thus set up a new dispensation in Kenya where the poor and the oppressed are part and a parcel of the nation. This has created a massive enthusiasm among the hoi polloi such that the PNU and the retired president have called the move euphoria. Everywhere they go they are confronted with absolute resolve by the people to vote for change and devolution. This is a shocking phenomenon to the money elite in Kenya ’s history. Kenyans want popular and charismatic leaders. They want servant leaders not carrot distributors. They want visionary and dedicated leaders. For four decades popular leaders have met the lethal wrath from the state and presidency. For 44 years popular leaders have faced death and extreme penalties. Being a champion of the poor has been unpopular with the privileged and the powerful. Championing the cause of the people was discouraged for decades. Hence popular leaders were incarcerated, detained or killed.
In the sixties Oginga Odinga was demoted and eventually phased out from public life. Tom Mboya was assassinated. In the 70s popular and charismatic leaders were equally eliminated or detained.JM Kariuki was assassinated while Shikuku and Seroney were detained. In the 80s popular leaders were rigged out through provincial administration. They include Martin Shikuku, Masinde Muliro, Marie Seroney, and Francis Lotodo.
Kenyans are yearning for charismatic, visionary, bold, independent, creative, innovative and servant leaders. They are up in arms against stooges, puppets, political mercenaries and opportunist. They in essence are up against a class of leaders who became the bench mark of Kenya ’s political landscape for along time.
The people throughout the nation will reject leaders who have no story but money. They will for the first time deal decisively against sycophants and looters.
The move by ODM presidential candidate Raila that he will not support any candidate is an excellent move. For 44 years presidents have always wanted their sycophants to be elected. Hence if leaders battle their way to parliament leaving the people to choose Kenya will be a great nation indeed. The party that will host popular and dynamic leader is a great party. A party that will suppress the interest of the people will loose.
In my view this year will advance the cause of the majority. It is the year when the superrich will not have their way as they have always done.
It is the years when the moneyed will submit to defeat despite hills of cash.
jcruiyo@yahoo.com